AI search isn’t yet the disruptive nemesis it’s been portrayed to be

In my first opinion piece on WARC (coauthored with Eli Goodman of Datos and ungated for everyone), I argue that yes, AI is transforming search. And no, it's not happening as quickly as everyone thinks it is.

Here's why I believe that:

1️⃣ Fewer than 1 in 6 US traditional search users also use an AI platform.

In May 2024, 16.4% of traditional search users used at least one of the AI platforms that I studied. And there hasn’t been all that much growth – only about 2 points compared to May 2023.

2️⃣ Visits to AI platforms are a tiny fraction of visits to Google.

Google users racked up an average of nearly 200 events per user per month over the 13 months of data I evaluated. Among AI sites, engagement was dramatically lower; for example, Perplexity desktop users averaged just 15 events per month.

3️⃣ Google’s metrics are still quite strong.

Its share of the combined desktop and web traffic for the properties we studied remained essentially the same between May 2023 and May 2024. The percentage of users who searched was also relatively unchanged.

Thank you WARC and Ann Marie Kerwin for giving space for an alternative viewpoint on the AI impact on search. I'm so excited to be published in WARC!

Read our full column here.